According to a new Pew Research poll, Sen. Barack Obama's national lead over Sen. John McCain has disappeared. The race is now a statistical tie, with Obama barely edging McCain, 46% to 43%. In late June, Obama held an eight point lead.

Two reasons for the shift:
McCain "is garnering more support from his base -- including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants -- than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period."

McCain "has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done."

 

Other Poll Results

Obama Leads in Wisconsin
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Wisconsin that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 47% to 42%

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McCain Slightly Ahead in Florida
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Florida shows Sen. John McCain just ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 44%

Analysis:

"Dramatic turns of event could still spell unexpected trouble or prosperity for either candidate, in Florida or elsewhere. But for now, Obama simply isn't ginning up quite enough support in Florida to turn all eyes to the state as the 'tiebreaker' in November... The likely reason is demographics."

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Obama Leads in Pennsylvania
A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain among likely voters in the key battleground state, 46% to 41%

The poll's margin of error is 3.9 points.

Poll director Terry Madonna on Obama:

"He's on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home. Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."

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Obama Gains in North Carolina
A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina finds Sen. John McCain edging Sen. Barack Obama, 49% to 45%

Compared to an identical poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2.

Key findings:
"Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points."

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Obama Remains Ahead in New Jersey
The latest Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a comfortable margin, 51% to 41%

Key findings:
"Independent voters go 45% for Sen. Obama and 42% for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48% to 45%, while women back Obama 53% to 38%. McCain leads 50% to 42% among white voters. Obama leads 66% to 28% among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51% to 42% among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47% to 44% edge with voters over 55 years old."

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Obama Leads McCain Among Christians
A new Barna Group poll finds Sen. Barack Obama maintains a nine point lead over Sen. John McCain among Christians, 43% to 34%

Key finding:
"Of the 18 faith groups identified in the polls, McCain is only leading among evangelicals and it's a narrow lead. Obama leads among the other 17 faith groups identified including the born again vote. Barna notes that would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate."

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Kentucky Seems Safe for Republicans
A new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky shows Sen. John McCain way out in front of Sen. Barack Obama, 55% to 37%.

Key findings:
Compared to the poll eight weeks ago, McCain is up 2 points; Obama is down 4. Then, McCain led by 16 points among men; today, he leads by 24. Then, McCain led by 8 points among women; today, he leads by 13. There is little or no change in partisan breakdowns over the past eight weeks: McCain today takes 86% of Republican votes; Obama takes 59% of Democratic votes; Independents favor McCain by 5 points.

Meanwhile, Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) re-election seems safe as he leads challenger Bruce Lundsford (D), 52% to 40%

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Obama Leads in Alaska
A new Hays Research (D) survey in Alaska shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 45% to 40%

The poll has a margin of error of 4.9%

-- Source: Politicalwire.com

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